Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45c4…656a
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$68 +62%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$66 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit18%
Chart Positions 6 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +104%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$65
crypto 9% +$2
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 13h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 28h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +62.6% +47.1% 80% 60% +71.8%
≤30d 5 +62.6% +47.1% 80% 60% +71.8%
≤90d 5 +62.6% +47.1% 80% 60% +71.8%
all 5 +62.6% +47.1% 80% 60% +71.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.1% 60% +71.8%
10% +33.1% 60% +55.4%
15% +20.2% 60% +40.4%
20% +8.4% 40% +26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.05 · official $38.05 (match) · 19 history records