Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45c0…dd92 crypto 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized −$20 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%85W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day66.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
≤30d 158 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
≤90d 158 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
all 158 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 54% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 54% -15.1%
15% -27.6% 54% -23.3%
20% -34.7% 54% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses85 / 73
Open positions3
Markets (closed)158 / 161
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day66.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 51¢ 90¢ $31 $54 +$24 (+77%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 59¢ 88¢ $36 $52 +$17 (+47%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Up 54¢ 69¢ $32 $42 +$9 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$34 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +102%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$8 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +103%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $34 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.49 · official $120.90 · 281 history records