Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45bf…a306 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$100 (-67%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +159% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +134% what you keep after slip
Net edge+134%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$140
sports 3% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+134.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +158.8% +134.1% 33% 33% -75.2%
≤30d 3 +158.8% +134.1% 33% 33% -75.2%
≤90d 3 +158.8% +134.1% 33% 33% -75.2%
all 3 +158.8% +134.1% 33% 33% -75.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +134.1% 33% -75.2%
10% +111.7% 33% -77.6%
15% +91.3% 33% -79.7%
20% +72.5% 33% -81.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +159% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$70 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage4d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$35 +676%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $40 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $93 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records