Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45bd…ed4d
crypto · 1351 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$15,386 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15,303 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$517
Realized−$15,303
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1062 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1350 / 1351
History coverage173d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,061
7 days−$491
14 days−$15,091
30 days−$16,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 97¢ 84¢ $600 $517 −$83 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $990 $0 −$990 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $565 +$39 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $528 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $503 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1,008 −$990 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $974 +$41 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $952 +$40 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $934 +$37 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $916 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $936 +$63 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $910 +$52 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $881 +$58 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $860 +$43 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $835 +$49 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $817 +$33 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $801 +$34 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $771 +$64 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $749 +$39 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $728 +$43 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $707 +$41 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $688 +$37 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $670 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $638 +$69 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $618 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $602 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $583 +$38 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $567 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $552 +$31 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $537 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $526 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $513 +$28 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$14,986
sports 0% −$400
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $601 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $565 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $528 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $503 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1,008 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,015 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $974 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $952 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $934 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $916 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $936 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $910 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $881 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $903 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $860 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $884 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $835 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $850 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $817 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $835 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $801 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $835 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $771 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $749 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $728 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $749 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $707 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $688 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $707 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $670 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -4.3% -13.5% 85% 33% -10.9%
≤30d 1063 -3.7% -12.9% 83% 39% -16.8%
≤90d 1074 -3.8% -13.0% 82% 39% -17.0%
all 1350 -4.3% -13.4% 79% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 41% -14.3%
10% -21.7% 18% -22.5%
15% -29.3% 11% -30.0%
20% -36.2% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.34 · official $473.97 · 3146 history records