Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x45b9…fa87 crypto 996 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$567 (+1%) realized +$567 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%843W / 153L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$465
sports 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -11.8% -20.2% 60% 24% -13.7%
≤30d 334 -3.5% -12.7% 83% 7% -10.4%
≤90d 841 +4.7% -5.2% 84% 10% -9.5%
all 996 +4.6% -5.4% 85% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 10% -8.9%
10% -14.5% 8% -17.7%
15% -22.7% 7% -25.6%
20% -30.3% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses843 / 153
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)996 / 996
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 996 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $59 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $59 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $86 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $61 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $56 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $55 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $55 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records