Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b8…339f crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$112 (+6%) realized +$34 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day134.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$315
sports 8% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +36.8% +23.8% 34% 34% +13.4%
≤30d 29 +36.8% +23.8% 34% 34% +13.4%
≤90d 29 +36.8% +23.8% 34% 34% +13.4%
all 29 +36.8% +23.8% 34% 34% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.8% 34% +13.4%
10% ← realistic here +11.9% 34% +2.5%
15% +1.1% 31% -7.4%
20% -8.8% 31% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +101% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$53 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day134.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 17¢ 44¢ $50 $128 +$78 (+156%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $152 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $136 +$119 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $84 −$76 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$280 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $143 −$135 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $116 −$109 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$51 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $69 +$281 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$314 +910%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$48 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $76 +$93 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$119 +388%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $45 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $149 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.92 · official $122.03 · 139 history records