Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b7…fcf3 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized +$57 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +23.6% +11.8% 50% 42% -5.0%
≤30d 12 +23.6% +11.8% 50% 42% -5.0%
≤90d 12 +23.6% +11.8% 50% 42% -5.0%
all 12 +23.6% +11.8% 50% 42% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.8% 42% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here +1.1% 33% -14.1%
15% -8.7% 25% -22.4%
20% -17.6% 25% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$56 +528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$13 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.64 (match) · 42 history records