Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x45b5…2d74 sports 324 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,092 (-6%) realized −$6,081 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%144W / 179L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1,630est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$1,018
14 days−$70
30 days−$6,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,495
other 1% −$1,263
world 0% +$41
crypto 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 52% -2.1%
≤30d 154 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% -15.9%
≤90d 311 -8.9% -17.5% 46% 45% -13.8%
all 323 -11.1% -19.6% 45% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 44% -15.6%
10% -27.3% 44% -23.7%
15% -34.3% 44% -31.1%
20% -40.7% 44% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$297 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,238
Realized−$6,081
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses144 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,630
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage97d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 54¢ $1,249 $1,238 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $987 +$280 +28%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $512 −$502 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $227 −$225 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $208 +$188 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $264 +$227 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 +$173 +85%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $204 +$179 +88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $436 +$338 +78%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $558 −$549 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $233 +$200 +86%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $407 −$164 -40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $203 +$199 +98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $279 −$275 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $334 +$255 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $395 +$290 +73%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $203 +$144 +71%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $509 +$741 +146%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $484 −$478 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $193 −$190 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,989 +$1,778 +89%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $292 −$287 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $242 −$238 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $274 −$270 -99%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $296 +$234 +79%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $240 +$206 +86%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $309 +$266 +86%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $251 −$247 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $361 +$503 +139%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $193 −$11 -6%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 09 $203 +$205 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $203 +$142 +70%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 08 $203 +$167 +82%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5) Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $253 +$209 +82%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $199 −$195 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $182 −$180 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $496 +$362 +73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $213 +$309 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1,267 27m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $1,267 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $987 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 33¢ $512 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 64¢ $227 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $254 6h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $208 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $264 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $400 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 79¢ $383 39h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 41¢ $204 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $774 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 45¢ $558 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $436 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $434 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $233 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 27¢ $243 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 43¢ $407 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $402 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $279 3d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $203 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 50¢ $203 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 BUY Under 56¢ $334 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $395 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Scotland 92¢ $346 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 53¢ $203 3d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 56¢ $484 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,238.09 · official $1,238.09 (match) · 484 history records