Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b5…6038 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% $0
politics 25% −$1
other 21% −$2
economics 8% +$1
crypto 8% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 4% −$13
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 138 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage166d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $48 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 08 $162 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 06 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 06 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 05 $193 −$13 -7%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $44 19d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $14 19d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $30 19d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 33d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 33d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $48 132d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $48 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 132d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 132d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 132d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $43 132d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $43 132d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $51 132d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $51 132d
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL No 98¢ $47 132d
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 98¢ $47 132d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $48 132d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $48 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 132d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 132d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 132d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $4 132d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla SELL No 98¢ $45 132d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $4 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records