Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45b2…e1ee crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%37W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$1
crypto 31% −$37
sports 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -8.1% -16.9% 64% 36% -13.9%
≤30d 58 -8.1% -16.9% 64% 36% -13.9%
≤90d 58 -8.1% -16.9% 64% 36% -13.9%
all 58 -8.1% -16.9% 64% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 36% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 24% -22.1%
15% -32.1% 14% -29.6%
20% -38.8% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 92¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$9 +25%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$36 -72%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $1 $0 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 97¢ $50 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $45 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 83¢ $4 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 33h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 33h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 34h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 34h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 39¢ $2 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $60 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 86¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.58 · official $75.03 (match) · 137 history records