Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
45 0x45ad…55b7 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27,397 (+30%) realized +$27,397 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$6,969per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$1,162est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$23,128
other 34% +$879
crypto 5% +$3,647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 75% 67% +19.7%
≤30d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 75% 67% +19.7%
≤90d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 75% 67% +19.7%
all 12 +16.5% +5.4% 75% 67% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 67% +19.7%
10% -4.7% 58% +8.3%
15% ← realistic here -13.9% 50% -2.2%
20% -22.4% 33% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,802 vs −$2,187 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27,397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1,162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6,969
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3,062 +$1,197 +39%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6,104 +$1,210 +20%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $874 −$851 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $16,990 +$10,755 +63%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10,168 +$6,773 +67%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4,236 +$3,356 +79%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3,356 −$698 -21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $12,530 +$1,034 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9,668 +$2,865 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,010 −$5,010 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,625 +$3,378 +39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4,982 +$3,647 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 45¢ $4,259 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $7,314 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $874 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 31¢ $3,062 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $6,104 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $97 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $3,226 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $4 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $4 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $7 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $89 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $35 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $50 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $500 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $19 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $119 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $25 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $146 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $45 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $596 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $144 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $29 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $29 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $400 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $13 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $20 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $19 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $18 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $10 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $252 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records