Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a8…918a crypto 1228 markets active 6d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$342 (-6%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%751W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$1
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 42% -28.5%
≤30d 518 -21.3% -28.8% 45% 41% -36.3%
≤90d 1161 -4.8% -13.9% 61% 53% -17.2%
all 1228 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 53% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 53% -17.0%
10% -22.0% 43% -24.9%
15% -29.5% 31% -32.2%
20% -36.4% 21% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses751 / 477
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1228 / 1228
History coverage103d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1228 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2454 history records