Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45a8…82e1
sports · 186 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$237 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$223 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$402
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses96 / 74
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions16
Markets (closed)170 / 186
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 16 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$22
14 days+$9
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $46 $57 +$11 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Daniel Merida Aguilar 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? No 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$5 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $92 −$6 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $33 −$2 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $27 −$2 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $10 +$7 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $10 +$8 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$8 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Focsani: Ana Ioana Varsa vs Anastasia Safta Jun 05 $10 +$7 +74%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 +$8 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $10 +$6 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $10 +$5 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $10 +$8 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $10 +$10 +97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $10 +$7 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $10 +$8 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $20 +$6 +30%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$19 +96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 +$20 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $20 +$17 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $20 +$24 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$269
other 15% −$34
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 7h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 99¢ $16 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 83¢ $15 32h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 46h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $25 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $3 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $20 4d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 57¢ $10 5d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 58¢ $10 5d
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +20.0% +8.5% 56% 56% -3.3%
≤30d 64 +7.2% -3.0% 55% 55% -4.4%
≤90d 170 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 55% -3.6%
all 170 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 55% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 55% -3.6%
10% -14.1% 54% -12.9%
15% -22.4% 52% -21.3%
20% -30.0% 46% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.82 · official $401.82 (match) · 427 history records