Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45a7…cc33
crypto · 1493 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,391 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,391 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$1,391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses733 / 873
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1606 / 1493
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day122.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1606 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,052
7 days−$1,898
14 days−$1,460
30 days−$1,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $594 $0 −$594 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 13 $594 −$594 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 13 $579 −$579 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 30? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$600
other 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 637 -20.3% -27.9% 41% 40% -41.6%
≤30d 1606 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 1606 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 44% -18.7%
all 1606 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 44% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover122.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 44% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 43% -26.5%
15% -33.1% 42% -33.6%
20% -39.7% 39% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.97 · official $39.97 (match) · 3500 history records