Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x45a4…4d37 tech 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+3%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,219per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 67% +$96
world 33% +$58
sports 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 2 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 3 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
all 5 -10.8% -19.3% 80% 20% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 20% -7.4%
10% -27.0% 0% -16.3%
15% -34.1% 0% -24.4%
20% -40.5% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.72 per $1 lost it wins $9.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage237d
Avg bet$1,219
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 27 $2,003 +$37 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $2,058 +$59 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $2,000 +$58 +3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $14 +$3 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $20 −$16 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,041 1h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,003 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $2,115 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $1 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $1 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $2,058 67d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2,058 67d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,000 101d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 90¢ $4 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 82¢ $10 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL Top Esports 6¢ $4 237d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 31¢ $20 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records