Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x45a3…12f0 politics 574 markets active 0h ago coverage 296d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 296d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,537 (+2%) realized +$4,185 · open +$352
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate92%477W / 44L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$16,926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 296d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$572
crypto 17% +$1,145
economics 16% +$3,455
world 14% +$1,074
other 7% +$970
finance 5% +$364
tech 3% +$265
sports 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.5% -3.7% 97% 31% -2.1%
≤30d 84 +2.0% -7.7% 90% 18% -15.5%
≤90d 237 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 11% -10.3%
all 521 +5.3% -4.7% 92% 14% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 14% -6.3%
10% -13.8% 7% -15.3%
15% -22.1% 4% -23.4%
20% -29.8% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$151 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$16,926
Realized+$4,185
Unrealized+$352
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses477 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions53
Markets (closed)521 / 574
History coverage296d ⚠
Avg bet$352
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,989 $2,135 +$146 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,183 $1,231 +$48 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $1,114 $1,162 +$47 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $1,197 $1,062 −$135 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $870 $888 +$18 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $789 $837 +$48 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $743 $749 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $667 $696 +$29 (+4%)
Will BNB dip to $500 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $620 $613 −$7 (-1%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 97¢ 99¢ $505 $516 +$12 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $473 $496 +$23 (+5%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $424 $484 +$60 (+14%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $387 $403 +$16 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $376 $396 +$20 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $363 $391 +$27 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $340 $338 −$2 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $334 $332 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $209 $247 +$37 (+18%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $226 $242 +$17 (+7%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 95¢ 91¢ $243 $233 −$10 (-4%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $212 $227 +$14 (+7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $230 $215 −$15 (-7%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $192 $197 +$5 (+3%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $196 $196 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 21 $754 +$47 +6%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 21 $334 +$14 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 21 $191 +$8 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 18 $589 +$58 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $70 +$9 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 18 $591 +$16 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,045 +$290 +28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 16 $659 +$39 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 16 $458 +$69 +15%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $200 +$3 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $822 +$38 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $286 +$11 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $181 −$83 -46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Jun 14 $395 +$46 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $150 +$12 +8%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 14 $287 +$10 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 13 $444 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $476 +$34 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 +$26 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Jun 11 $191 +$7 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $2,598 +$171 +7%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $595 +$16 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? Jun 10 $96 +$3 +3%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $423 +$31 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $500 +$30 +6%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $280 +$15 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $948 −$80 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 2m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? BUY No 97¢ $195 48m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? BUY No 96¢ $96 50m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $190 54m
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $99 58m
Will BNB dip to $500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $103 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 98¢ $36 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $751 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? SELL No 99¢ $652 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $200 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 91¢ $100 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 96¢ $90 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 99¢ $74 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,925.88 · official $16,923.98 (match) · 3500 history records