Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x45a2…58fe weather 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+6%) realized +$47 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%26W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$5
weather 17% $0
politics 8% +$27
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +35.4%
≤30d 1 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +35.4%
≤90d 15 +16.2% +5.1% 87% 20% -3.0%
all 28 +9.0% -1.4% 93% 11% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 11% -3.8%
10% -10.9% 11% -13.0%
15% -19.5% 11% -21.4%
20% -27.4% 7% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$126 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses26 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage99d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $79 $73 −$7 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 21 $55 +$27 +50%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 28 $52 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 8? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 9? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 9? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 9? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 51°F or below on April 9? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 8? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 8? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 07 $33 +$19 +57%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $159 −$126 -79%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 17? Mar 26 $7 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $56 +$114 +205%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 17? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on March 16? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on March 16? Mar 17 $6 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch? Mar 17 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 17°F or below on March 16? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 16? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on Marc Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 18-19°F on March 16 Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on March 16? Mar 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 16 Mar 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 16? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on March 16? Mar 16 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $82 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 16d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 33¢ $55 54d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 58d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 51°F or below on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 75d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $33 82d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 13¢ $33 82d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $159 82d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 87d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.60 · official $72.60 (match) · 86 history records