trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +600.0% | +533.3% | 33% | 33% | -89.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +387.5% | +341.1% | 40% | 40% | +164.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +387.5% | +341.1% | 40% | 40% | +164.3% |
| all | 5 | +387.5% | +341.1% | 40% | 40% | +164.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +341.1% | 40% | +164.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +298.9% | 40% | +139.0% |
| 15% | +260.3% | 40% | +115.9% |
| 20% | +225.0% | 40% | +94.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $5,522 | $5,549 | +$27 (+0%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 55¢ | $5,792 | $4,844 | −$948 (-16%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 45¢ | $2,475 | $3,988 | +$1,513 (+61%) |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | No | 60¢ | 60¢ | $283 | $287 | +$4 (+2%) |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $155 | $160 | +$5 (+3%) |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 39¢ | $151 | $146 | −$5 (-3%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $32 | $14 | −$18 (-56%) |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Yes | 41¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $4 | −$6 (-62%) |
| Trump meets with Putin by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $6 | $4 | −$2 (-36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr) | Jun 19 | $10 | −$15 | -146% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | Jun 19 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Jun 19 | $0 | +$85 | +22346% |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Jun 09 | $1,007 | +$2,394 | +238% |
| Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Jun 09 | $102 | −$594 | -582% |