Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x45a2…be25
other · 121 markets active 3h ago
1.5score
+$361 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$360 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$910
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
Avg bet$829
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $559 $560 +$1 (+0%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $350 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $418 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $366 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $828 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,343 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,494 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,126 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,521 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,016 −$3 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $5,786 −$6 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,446 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $393 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $472 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $477 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $432 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $470 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $400 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $416 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $429 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$804
politics 38% −$41
sports 14% −$399
culture 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $356 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $357 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $348 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $349 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $489 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $490 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $415 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $415 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $418 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $419 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $412 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $417 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $156 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $156 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $559 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $533 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $534 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $512 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $512 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $604 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $604 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $366 16d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 20d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 20d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $800 20d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $801 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $828 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -15.0% -23.1% 9% 2% -10.8%
all 119 -4.3% -13.4% 18% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 11% -9.2%
10% -21.7% 10% -17.9%
15% -29.3% 8% -25.8%
20% -36.2% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $910.15 · official $910.15 (match) · 411 history records