Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x45a1…1459 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$5 (+4%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$15
sports 43% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤30d 3 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤90d 3 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +14.5%
all 3 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 100% +14.5%
10% +15.9% 67% +3.5%
15% +4.7% 33% -6.5%
20% -5.6% 33% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $66 +$15 +23%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +81%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $66 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 21¢ $5 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 29¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.24 · official $174.24 · 5 history records