Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

45 0x45a0…904c crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$110 (-49%) realized −$107 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-56.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	4	-52.0%	-56.6%	25%	25%	-90.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.6%	25%	-90.1%
10%	-60.7%	25%	-91.1%
15%	-64.5%	25%	-91.9%
20%	-68.0%	25%	-92.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$39 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage

Net worth$92

Realized−$107

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage160d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$95	$92	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$99	−$97	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12AM ET	Jun 12	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 11?	Jan 11	$7	+$6	+92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 10	Jan 11	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$98	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$99	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$14	158d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 11?	SELL Up	100¢	$13	158d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 11?	BUY Up	52¢	$7	160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 10	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	160d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.19 · official $92.19 (match) · 8 history records