Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x45a0…4be5 crypto 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$894 (+16%) realized +$931 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%131W / 92L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$635
7 days+$815
14 days+$803
30 days+$767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$124
other 25% +$316
sports 23% +$537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 51% +11.8%
≤30d 223 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 59% +5.7%
≤90d 223 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 59% +5.7%
all 223 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 59% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 59% +5.7%
10% -18.5% 58% -4.4%
15% -26.4% 58% -13.7%
20% -33.6% 52% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized+$931
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses131 / 92
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)223 / 227
History coverage15d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $250 $233 −$17 (-7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$17 +52%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $31 +$219 +712%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $405 +$253 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$6 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $152 +$111 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$21 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$24 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$20 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$19 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$20 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$19 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$17 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $34 33m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $355 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 6h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $202 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $204 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 21h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $71 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $77 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.70 · official $762.70 (match) · 369 history records