Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x459f…c1f5 sports 530 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,767 (-2%) realized −$1,824 · open +$57
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%231W / 291L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$664est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$506
7 days−$244
14 days−$803
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,884
other 39% +$295
world 1% +$311
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +28.1% +15.9% 43% 43% -14.2%
≤30d 73 +22.1% +10.5% 53% 53% -9.7%
≤90d 315 +3.9% -6.0% 42% 42% -11.7%
all 522 +2.2% -7.5% 44% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 43% -11.7%
10% -16.3% 42% -20.2%
15% -24.4% 41% -27.9%
20% -31.8% 38% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$164 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized−$1,824
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses231 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$664
Open positions8
Markets (closed)522 / 530
History coverage151d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $366 $359 −$8 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $174 $269 +$95 (+55%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51¢ 55¢ $179 $192 +$12 (+7%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 54¢ 52¢ $182 $175 −$7 (-4%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 54¢ 38¢ $179 $128 −$51 (-29%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 48¢ $56 $82 +$26 (+47%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 38¢ $59 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 23 $184 +$146 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $184 +$202 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $184 +$158 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $185 +$135 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $185 +$153 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $77 +$672 +874%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $288 −$281 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 20 $185 −$183 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $215 −$211 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $162 −$160 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $363 −$355 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $630 +$162 +26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 18 $162 −$159 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $80 +$63 +79%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $199 −$195 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $163 −$160 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $157 +$100 +64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $151 +$714 +474%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $346 −$339 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $271 −$265 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $117 −$114 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $165 −$163 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $165 −$163 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $165 +$153 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $551 +$198 +36%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $165 −$162 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $199 +$497 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $551 −$540 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $164 +$186 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $163 −$161 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $66 +$290 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,232 +$211 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,066 −$1,061 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,143 +$210 +18%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $62 +$29 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $163 +$141 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $164 +$172 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $164 +$159 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $632 +$692 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $305 −$299 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$15 +48%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $163 +$146 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $524 −$518 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $457 −$448 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 09 $161 +$163 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $59 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $374 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $57 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $178 4h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $182 7h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $182 7h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $184 24h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $184 28h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $184 28h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $184 28h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $185 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $185 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $185 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $288 3d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $146 3d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $39 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $177 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $79 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $215 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $162 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $363 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $630 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $162 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $199 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $163 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $62 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $91 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,272.08 · official $1,272.08 (match) · 1459 history records