Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x459e…7dd1
sports · 148 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$16,305 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,440 · open +$2,867
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,594
Realized+$13,440
Unrealized+$2,867
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses72 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3,837
Open positions7
Markets (closed)141 / 148
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,528
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 7 History 141 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,804
7 days+$7,902
14 days+$13,440
30 days+$13,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ 54¢ $1,787 $3,542 +$1,754 (+98%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 69¢ $2,062 $2,606 +$543 (+26%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 67¢ $1,835 $2,439 +$604 (+33%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ 57¢ $1,695 $1,890 +$196 (+12%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 47¢ $2,048 $1,817 −$231 (-11%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $1,756 $1,741 −$15 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1,543 $1,559 +$17 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,361 +$1,486 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,759 +$2,297 +131%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $2,279 +$1,884 +83%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,558 −$1,558 -100%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $1,806 −$1,806 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $1,638 +$1,512 +92%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1,642 −$1,642 -100%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $1,768 +$1,661 +94%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $3,115 −$574 -18%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $772 −$772 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1,025 −$825 -81%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $4,974 +$2,594 +52%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3,857 +$3,161 +82%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $204 +$601 +294%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $4,222 +$308 +7%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $1,836 −$1,828 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,809 +$645 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1,139 +$1,364 +120%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,287 −$1,287 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1,295 −$1,295 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $2,234 −$2,234 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $2,126 −$2,126 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2,709 −$2,709 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1,569 +$2,427 +155%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2,823 +$1,034 +37%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $3,089 −$3,089 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1,185 +$2,264 +191%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2,105 +$2,008 +95%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1,322 +$1,633 +124%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $470 −$470 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1,808 −$1,808 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,309 −$2,309 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1,484 +$1,411 +95%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2,295 +$1,818 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2,199 +$2,175 +99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1,966 +$1,737 +88%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $711 −$708 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1,378 −$1,378 -100%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,636 +$1,523 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1,536 −$1,536 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1,567 +$1,580 +101%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $1,888 −$1,888 -100%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $1,194 +$1,912 +160%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $1,228 +$1,138 +93%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$14,317
other 3% +$2,624
crypto 1% −$633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $99 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 49¢ $99 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $842 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,599 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $334 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,720 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $80 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $215 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $776 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,042 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $471 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $71 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $35 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $61 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $1,756 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,074 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $2,847 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $708 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $3 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $74 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $54 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $3 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $2 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $0 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 46% -5.9%
≤30d 141 +4.3% -5.6% 51% 48% -3.8%
≤90d 141 +4.3% -5.6% 51% 48% -3.8%
all 141 +4.3% -5.6% 51% 48% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 48% -3.8%
10% -14.7% 47% -13.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.9% 44% -21.4%
20% -30.5% 41% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,593.84 · official $15,594.21 (match) · 902 history records