Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4599…4152 sports 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$132 (-5%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%99W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$121
other 8% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 22% -10.0%
≤30d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 21% -10.3%
≤90d 193 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 31% -14.8%
all 193 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 31% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 31% -14.8%
10% -18.7% 18% -22.9%
15% -26.5% 16% -30.4%
20% -33.7% 13% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1.130067525843848% → late -0.10366080275915779% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses99 / 94
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)193 / 193
History coverage63d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 38¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
ITF Wichita: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Reese Brantmeier Sahaja Yamalapalli 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Alexander Vasilev vs Anton Arzhankin Anton Arzhankin 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 66¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 61¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $71 +$1 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $81 +$16 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $91 −$4 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $45 +$6 +13%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $7 −$2 -29%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $12 −$3 -27%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $7 −$1 -15%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $28 −$4 -15%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $20 −$6 -28%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 65¢ $11 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 95¢ $15 15m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $10 16m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $13 16m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $10 30m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 85¢ $15 30m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 56¢ $11 30m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $10 33m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 37¢ $10 33m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $10 42m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $9 42m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 37¢ $10 43m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 64¢ $15 43m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $10 48m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $10 48m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 42¢ $8 49m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $9 49m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $10 52m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $10 53m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $10 53m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $10 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $10 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 59¢ $9 55m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $11 56m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $10 58m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 53¢ $9 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 65¢ $10 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 35¢ $9 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $10 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 837 history records