Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4597…0e8c politics 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,257 (+0%) realized +$1,257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%39W / 153L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,549per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$26
14 days+$21
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$53
politics 39% −$146
sports 12% +$1,475
world 4% −$63
economics 2% −$8
culture 2% −$8
crypto 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 +0.1% -9.4% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 129 -6.8% -15.7% 7% 4% -9.2%
all 192 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 8% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 7% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,755) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$7 · ×8.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses39 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,549
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,217 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,937 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,276 −$5 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,568 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,776 −$4 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $167 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,761 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,088 −$6 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,181 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,892 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $6,855 −$7 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $76 +$83 +109%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,225 −$2 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $66 +$69 +105%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,075 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $421 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,582 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,720 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,605 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,957 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $443 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $373 34m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $373 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $397 20h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $397 20h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $483 20h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $484 21h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $356 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $357 28h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 42h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 44h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $385 45h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $385 47h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $257 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $257 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,349 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,371 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,372 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,353 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,355 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,284 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,285 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,143 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 661 history records