Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4595…411b crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$32 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 46% -8.6%
≤30d 48 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 46% -8.6%
≤90d 48 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 46% -8.6%
all 48 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 46% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 46% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 15% -17.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.8% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 60¢ 82¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 67¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$18 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.92 · official $13.96 · 249 history records