Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4593…e780 crypto 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate70%230W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 65% -8.5%
≤30d 232 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 62% -9.8%
≤90d 327 -3.8% -12.9% 70% 56% -13.4%
all 327 -3.8% -12.9% 70% 56% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 56% -13.4%
10% -21.3% 46% -21.7%
15% -28.9% 15% -29.2%
20% -35.8% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses230 / 97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 328
History coverage53d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 52¢ 81¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.70 · official $2.91 · 911 history records