Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x4592…a49c other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$266 (+5%) realized +$312 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$92
politics 16% −$142
sports 14% +$434
world 11% −$51
crypto 10% −$18
economics 4% +$67
culture 2% −$98
weather 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.4% +11.7% 67% 67% +17.6%
≤30d 9 +23.4% +11.7% 67% 67% +17.6%
≤90d 15 +21.9% +10.3% 67% 67% +15.9%
all 44 +24.1% +12.3% 64% 59% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 59% -2.3%
10% +1.5% 52% -11.6%
15% -8.3% 41% -20.2%
20% -17.3% 30% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$57 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$312
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage322d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $210 $254 +$44 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $91 $43 −$48 (-52%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ $48 $1 −$47 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $155 +$87 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? Mar 25 $19 +$19 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 25 $19 +$33 +172%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 23 $99 +$19 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 23 $99 +$25 +26%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $100 +$79 +78%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 24 $496 −$6 -1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $100 +$26 +26%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 31 $78 +$7 +9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $388 +$96 +25%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $108 −$20 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $200 −$188 -94%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 26 $100 +$2 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 20 $49 +$23 +47%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Dec 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 27 $99 +$126 +128%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 16 $98 −$98 -100%
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? Nov 14 $200 +$35 +18%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 12 $170 +$47 +28%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $176 −$93 -53%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $100 −$36 -36%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 09 $100 −$82 -82%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$59 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $10 +$61 +614%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $100 +$52 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$117 +117%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$22 +22%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$49 +49%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 24 $100 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 42m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $161 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $104 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? BUY Yes $10 83d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 83d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 83d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 85d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 86d
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 40¢ $179 108d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $91 117d
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 84¢ $99 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 80¢ $99 130d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 23¢ $95 142d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $490 143d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $45 154d
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No $100 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.30 · official $453.30 (match) · 125 history records