Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4592…d2b6 politics 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,664 (+1%) realized +$1,664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%36W / 154L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,491per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$178
politics 36% −$208
sports 7% +$1,983
world 2% −$7
culture 2% −$10
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 49 +2.9% -6.9% 14% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 123 +1.8% -7.9% 8% 6% -9.1%
all 190 +4.4% -5.5% 19% 12% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 12% -9.0%
10% -14.6% 12% -17.7%
15% -22.8% 11% -25.7%
20% -30.4% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,127) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$7 · ×10.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$1,664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses36 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,491
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $161 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,852 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,873 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,168 −$5 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 14 $2,144 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,653 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $2,407 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $2,671 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,901 −$6 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,835 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $78 +$75 +97%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $4,661 −$6 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,127 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $84 +$48 +57%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,776 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,805 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,669 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,790 −$3 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $66 +$62 +93%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $875 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $459 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,225 −$5 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,563 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,202 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,219 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,127 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $52 +$50 +97%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 24 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,162 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $72 +$72 +101%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,874 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $3,154 −$5 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 19 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $218 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $584 3h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $585 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 7h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $216 9h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,045 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,222 3d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,224 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,175 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,174 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,261 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,263 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,245 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,246 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,027 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,029 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $993 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $994 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $161 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,517 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.05 · official $161.05 (match) · 670 history records