Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x458f…7dd7 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-13%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$57
other 33% +$19
culture 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 2 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 0% -40.4%
≤90d 8 +23.5% +11.8% 75% 62% -23.5%
all 14 +21.8% +10.2% 64% 50% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 50% -22.7%
10% -0.3% 36% -30.1%
15% -10.0% 14% -36.8%
20% -18.8% 14% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage105d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $49 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $122 −$59 -48%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $7 +$13 +183%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $5 −$2 -42%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $3 +$1 +26%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $0 $0 +20%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $2 +$7 +300%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 06 $9 +$1 +13%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Czechia Mar 05 $10 $0 +5%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 05 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 24¢ $63 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 31¢ $22 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 50¢ $100 18d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 45d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 45d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes $3 45d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 45d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 45d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes $5 45d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes $7 45d
Warriors vs. Clippers SELL Warriors 20¢ $12 62d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 16¢ $10 62d
Warriors vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 83¢ $25 62d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 65¢ $20 62d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? SELL Yes $3 80d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes $3 80d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 80d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? SELL Yes $1 80d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes $0 80d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 81d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 81d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 94d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 94d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 94d
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $10 103d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Czechia SELL South Korea 100¢ $10 104d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY South Korea 76¢ $8 104d
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan BUY Japan 88¢ $9 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records