Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

45 0x458f…d8a1 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized −$39 · open +$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$71

7 days+$23

14 days+$11

30 days+$11

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-29.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-15.0%	-23.1%	50%	50%	+4.3%
≤30d	4	-22.1%	-29.5%	50%	50%	-4.2%
≤90d	4	-22.1%	-29.5%	50%	50%	-4.2%
all	4	-22.1%	-29.5%	50%	50%	-4.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.5%	50%	-4.2%
10%	-36.2%	50%	-13.4%
15%	-42.4%	50%	-21.7%
20%	-48.1%	25%	-29.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$336

Realized−$39

Unrealized+$12

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage8d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$274	$270	−$4 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Over	51¢	68¢	$50	$66	+$16 (+32%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$71	+70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$49	−$48	-99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$20	+$8	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$51	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	32¢	$98	12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$82	20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$136	34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$49	5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qat	BUY	10¢	$51	6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND	BUY	9¢	$26	6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	58¢	$20	8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.75 · official $432.42 · 16 history records