Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x458e…8034 weather 827 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$303 (+6%) realized +$327 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%389W / 362L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days−$442
14 days−$472
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 553 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 58% -22.2%
≤30d 723 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 49% -15.8%
≤90d 751 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 49% -13.9%
all 751 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 49% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 49% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -22.1%
15% -25.4% 28% -29.6%
20% -32.7% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized+$327
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses389 / 362
Open positions76
Markets (closed)751 / 827
History coverage54d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? No 72¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 76¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? No 55¢ 67¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 77¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 80¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 72¢ 85¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 79¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? No 83¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? No 72¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? No 83¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? No 79¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 84¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 85¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? No 84¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? No 74¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? No 71¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 70¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 70¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? No 73¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? No 86¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 81¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 87¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 70¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 71¢ 75¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? No 80¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.61 · official $351.10 (match) · 2012 history records