Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x458c…c504
other · 329 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,035 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,083 · open −$304
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,610
Realized+$2,083
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses111 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions240
Markets (closed)180 / 329
History coverage9d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day371.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 240 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,518
7 days+$2,034
14 days+$2,083
30 days+$2,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 87¢ 86¢ $173 $172 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $178 $172 −$6 (-3%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 86¢ 83¢ $172 $166 −$6 (-3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 82¢ $192 $164 −$28 (-15%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 87¢ 84¢ $169 $162 −$7 (-4%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 79¢ $178 $158 −$20 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 76¢ $184 $153 −$31 (-17%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 85¢ 63¢ $142 $105 −$37 (-26%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$0 (+0%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 97¢ 96¢ $97 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 97¢ 95¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 86¢ 88¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 78¢ $85 $78 −$6 (-8%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 76¢ $86 $75 −$10 (-12%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 58¢ $88 $58 −$30 (-34%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 53¢ $85 $53 −$32 (-38%)
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tyreek Hill play for the New England Patriots next? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US civil war before 2027? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +463%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Jun 14 $0 +$2 +858%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Jun 14 $0 +$2 +628%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +3166%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $133 +$21 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $321 $0 -0%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $644 +$99 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $1,379 +$14 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 13 $148 +$49 +33%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $34 +$14 +41%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $870 +$99 +11%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $321 +$49 +15%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $401 +$49 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 13 $683 +$48 +7%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 13 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $198 +$48 +24%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $149 +$99 +66%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 13 $48 +$50 +102%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $542 +$48 +9%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $86 +$2 +2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1,384 +$99 +7%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $396 $0 +0%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 13 $344 $0 +0%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $225 +$50 +22%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $882 $0 +0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 13 $1,773 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 13 $192 +$189 +98%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 13 $197 +$198 +101%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $820 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 13 $59 +$50 +84%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $90 +$2 +3%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$793
world 18% +$499
crypto 17% +$264
economics 8% +$96
sports 3% +$34
culture 2% +$50
tech 1% +$26
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 11m
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 19m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $3 21m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 23m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 25m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $3 29m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 31m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 32m
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 34m
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $27 38m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $23 39m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 39m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $23 40m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $30 40m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 40m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $16 41m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 41m
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 43m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $32 43m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 43m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $30 45m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $22 47m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $22 49m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $48 50m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $3 52m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 53m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 54m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $48 55m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $48 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +31.8% +19.2% 66% 17% -4.3%
≤30d 180 +30.0% +17.6% 62% 16% -4.4%
≤90d 180 +30.0% +17.6% 62% 16% -4.4%
all 180 +30.0% +17.6% 62% 16% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover371.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.6% 16% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here +6.4% 12% -13.5%
15% -3.9% 10% -21.9%
20% -13.3% 9% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,610.25 · official $10,602.00 (match) · 3500 history records