Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4589…d745 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$277 (-12%) realized −$294 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$16
14 days−$73
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$347
world 23% +$73
crypto 16% −$30
sports 9% +$38
tech 3% +$22
economics 3% +$42
politics 2% −$44
culture 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.5% -2.7% 71% 71% +1.0%
≤30d 23 -19.4% -27.0% 57% 57% -23.0%
≤90d 39 -42.3% -47.8% 38% 38% -34.1%
all 69 -39.5% -45.3% 39% 36% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 36% -22.2%
10% -50.5% 30% -29.6%
15% -55.3% 25% -36.4%
20% -59.7% 17% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)69 / 78
History coverage166d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $22 $46 +$24 (+111%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+114%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $11 −$7 (-36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $7 −$4 (-32%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 +$6 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 +$4 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 03 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$20 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $107 −$104 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $58 −$58 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 08 $50 +$8 +15%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $56 +$44 +78%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $25 −$23 -91%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 27 $50 +$18 +36%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Korea record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Slovenia record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $20 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 76¢ $20 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 38h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 64¢ $24 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $15 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $40 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $13 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 100¢ $69 15d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 72¢ $51 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.03 · official $212.03 (match) · 240 history records