Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4588…aa84 politics 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,282 (-0%) realized −$1,284 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%36W / 158L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,520per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days+$15
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$62
politics 35% −$142
sports 13% −$1,110
culture 4% −$16
economics 3% −$11
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 131 -7.1% -16.0% 5% 4% -10.3%
all 194 +0.4% -9.1% 19% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 9% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 9% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 9% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,155) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$1,284
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses36 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,520
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $175 $177 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $451 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $2,634 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,485 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,469 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,466 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,862 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $909 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,938 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,250 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $4,114 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $68 +$68 +101%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,089 −$6 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,417 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,918 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $8,932 −$10 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $70 +$74 +105%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,375 −$4 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $646 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,840 −$4 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,155 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $3,624 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,743 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,528 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,815 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $44 +$59 +134%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $3,744 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,939 −$3 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,212 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,853 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $433 23m
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $434 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $486 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $487 3h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $305 7h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $305 9h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $340 24h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $341 27h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $451 27h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $451 28h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $248 31h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 33h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,174 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,252 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,275 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,147 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.02 · official $177.02 (match) · 681 history records