Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

45 0x4587…7bc9 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23,987 (+26%) realized +$38,972 · open −$14,985

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%15W / 6L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown73%max

Avg bet$4,200per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$1,153est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+10.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+9.3%	-1.1%	60%	60%	+13.3%
≤30d	21	+22.3%	+10.6%	71%	71%	+17.1%
≤90d	21	+22.3%	+10.6%	71%	71%	+17.1%
all	21	+22.3%	+10.6%	71%	71%	+17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+10.6%	71%	+17.1%
10% ← realistic here	+0.1%	71%	+5.9%
15%	-9.6%	62%	-4.4%
20%	-18.5%	57%	-13.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,723) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +27% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2,730 vs −$3,044 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$38,972

Unrealized−$14,985

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses15 / 6

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$1,153

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage17d

Avg bet$4,200

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown73%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Under	49¢	0¢	$15,000	$15	−$14,985 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20,953	+$11,436	+55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$8,094	+$5,021	+62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$4,228	+$3,639	+86%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$1,299	−$1,299	-100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$3,052	−$3,052	-100%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$3,069	−$3,069	-100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$9,132	−$9,132	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$5,091	+$7,729	+152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$3,547	+$2,810	+79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$2,034	+$1,209	+60%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	Jun 03	$2,032	+$2,218	+109%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	Jun 02	$1,618	+$476	+29%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	Jun 01	$3,723	+$963	+26%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$700	−$700	-100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$1,015	−$1,015	-100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Jun 01	$3,043	+$2,590	+85%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5	Jun 01	$505	+$252	+50%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$2,022	+$1,112	+55%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 1.5	Jun 01	$1,013	+$779	+77%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5	May 31	$490	+$316	+64%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5	May 31	$507	+$401	+79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	49¢	$15,229	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20,953	5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$4,228	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$8,094	22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$5,091	29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$6,357	29h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	62¢	$2,034	35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$1,013	35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$2,534	35h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	39¢	$4,040	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	39¢	$5,091	4d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$1,017	12d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$1,017	12d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$1,018	12d
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$1,299	14d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	47¢	$1,016	14d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	47¢	$1,016	14d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	99¢	$2,094	15d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	76¢	$611	15d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	76¢	$1,007	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	25¢	$1,022	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	24¢	$1,023	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	22¢	$1,023	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	50¢	$4,685	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	41¢	$667	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	38¢	$1,018	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	38¢	$1,019	15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	37¢	$1,019	15d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	99¢	$5,633	15d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	52¢	$1,014	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.31 · official $15.31 (match) · 63 history records