Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4582…8fa2 crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3440 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$63,287 (+587%) realized +$63,290 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate32%29W / 61L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3440.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$316
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3440 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 12% -8.5%
≤30d 90 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 12% -8.5%
≤90d 90 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 12% -8.5%
all 90 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3440.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 12% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.0% 6% -17.2%
15% -46.7% 4% -25.2%
20% -51.9% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
54.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$8 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$63,290
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses29 / 61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 63
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3440.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 80¢ 81¢ $107 $109 +$2 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 85¢ 76¢ $41 $37 −$5 (-11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 81¢ 74¢ $29 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 19¢ 19¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 29¢ 24¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 29¢ 26¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +132%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$14 -163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $321 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$39 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $199 −$28 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $292 −$16 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $172 −$3 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $192 −$33 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$10 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $430 +$8 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $133 −$13 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$6 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $593 +$47 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $113 −$18 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $150 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $651 −$6 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.44 · official $219.81 (match) · 3500 history records