Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4582…71dc other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% $0
world 33% −$1
politics 15% $0
crypto 8% −$2
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -1.7% -11.0% 31% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage346d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $14 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jul 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Jul 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 71°F or below on July 8? Jul 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $31 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $7 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $16 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $12 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $27 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $28 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $13 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $31.62 (match) · 136 history records