Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
45 0x4581…1f1a crypto 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$44 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate85%175W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$71
14 days−$64
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$64
crypto 41% −$2
weather 8% −$25
sports 6% +$27
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -6.9% -15.7% 89% 1% -16.8%
≤30d 206 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 5% -12.7%
≤90d 206 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 5% -12.7%
all 206 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 5% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 5% -12.7%
10% -22.6% 3% -21.0%
15% -30.1% 3% -28.7%
20% -36.9% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses175 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)206 / 218
History coverage28d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $155 $151 −$4 (-3%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 42¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+25%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 16¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-18%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 57¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 36¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yan Diomande join Liverpool? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Joao Cancelo join Barcelona? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 69¢ 17¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? Yes 25¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 24, 3AM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 24, 12AM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 24, 12AM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 23, 11PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 23, 10PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 23, 10PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 23, 10PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 23, 9PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 23, 9PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 23, 9PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 23, 9PM ET? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 23, 1AM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 23, 12AM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 23, 12AM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 22, 10PM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 22, 10PM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 22, 9PM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 22, 9PM ET? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? Jun 23 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Casemiro join Inter Miami? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 20h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the South Africa vs South Ko BUY Yes 69¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 24, 3AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 24, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 30h
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 24, 12AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 23, 11PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 32h
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 23, 10PM ET? SELL No 100¢ $5 33h
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 23, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 23, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 23, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 23, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 23, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.16 · official $343.14 (match) · 528 history records