Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x457e…1294 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,001 (+55%) realized +$1,014 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$938
crypto 3% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% +48.0%
≤30d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% +48.0%
≤90d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% +48.0%
all 9 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% +48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 56% +48.0%
10% -14.9% 56% +33.9%
15% -23.2% 56% +20.9%
20% -30.7% 56% +9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$39 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.78 per $1 lost it wins $6.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$1,014
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $205 $194 −$11 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $500 +$285 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $231 +$166 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $126 +$78 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $89 +$94 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $209 17h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $61 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $500 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $130 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $126 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $89 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.32 · official $402.41 (match) · 19 history records