Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

45 0x457c…2308 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$99 (-15%) realized −$102 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-22.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	-21.5%
≤30d	8	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	-21.5%
≤90d	8	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	-21.5%
all	8	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	-21.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.7%	50%	-21.5%
10%	-30.1%	38%	-29.1%
15%	-36.9%	38%	-35.9%
20%	-43.1%	25%	-42.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$41 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$129

Realized−$102

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Over	67¢	68¢	$126	$129	+$3 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$89	+$38	+43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$58	+$30	+52%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$26	−$26	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$52	+$6	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$32	+$20	+62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$102	−$79	-78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$121	−$10	-8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$127	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$127	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$89	7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	42¢	$26	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$58	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$52	31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$32	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$23	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$111	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$121	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.68 · official $128.68 (match) · 15 history records