Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
45 0x4574…0b7a crypto 34 markets active 10h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,971 (-62%) realized −$7,718 · open −$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%4W / 26L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$709
14 days−$635
30 days−$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$3,256
economics 38% −$3,869
other 6% −$259
sports 4% −$332
world 1% −$59
finance 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.0% -67.5% 0% 0% -54.5%
≤30d 10 +8.5% -1.8% 20% 20% -41.5%
≤90d 10 +8.5% -1.8% 20% 20% -41.5%
all 30 -52.4% -56.9% 13% 10% -80.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 10% -80.0%
10% -61.0% 10% -81.9%
15% -64.8% 10% -83.7%
20% -68.2% 10% -85.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -77% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$305 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized−$7,718
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses4 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage408d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $543 $426 −$117 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $366 $277 −$89 (-24%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $174 $186 +$12 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 2¢ $109 $50 −$59 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $150 −$26 -17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $968 −$377 -39%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $274 −$267 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $79 −$27 -34%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 +$48 +188%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $34 +$141 +417%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $203 −$59 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 26 $21 −$21 -99%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 25 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Feb 01 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2AM ET Jan 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 21? Dec 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 20? Dec 19 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Dec 10 $332 −$332 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Dec 09 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 10? Dec 09 $98 +$136 +139%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 5? Dec 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 4? Dec 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $2,332 −$2,331 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. MOUZ Jun 19 $242 −$242 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 18 $395 −$395 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 05 $726 +$31 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $84 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $84 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $25 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 9h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $73 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $34 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $100 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $162 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $234 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $77 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 31h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $105 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $177 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $96 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $98 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $104 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $263 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $94 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $93 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $180 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $192 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $137 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $79 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.24 · official $939.44 (match) · 161 history records