Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4573…1c07
crypto · 414 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$201 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$197 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses195 / 218
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)413 / 414
History coverage30d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day69.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days+$174
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% −$219
crypto 39% +$38
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 64% -11.0%
≤30d 413 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 44% -12.0%
≤90d 413 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 44% -12.0%
all 413 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 44% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 43% -20.4%
15% -30.8% 41% -28.1%
20% -37.6% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.72 (match) · 2488 history records