Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4572…5e86 other 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 494d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25,049 (+5%) realized +$24,502 · open +$547
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%73W / 71L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,473per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1,597est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$19,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 494d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$14,792
sports 32% −$1,201
crypto 9% −$13,574
world 5% +$2,283
politics 0% −$945
tech 0% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 83 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 46% -5.7%
≤90d 95 -13.0% -21.3% 49% 42% -8.4%
all 144 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 35% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 35% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 26% -17.9%
15% -37.7% 19% -25.9%
20% -43.8% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$4,648) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,362 vs −$2,485 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$19,245
Realized+$24,502
Unrealized+$547
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses73 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,597
Open positions5
Markets (closed)144 / 149
History coverage494d
Avg bet$3,473
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? No 28¢ 28¢ $14,698 $14,338 −$360 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $2,500 $3,664 +$1,164 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $743 +$243 (+49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $4,488 +$2,112 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $439 +$93 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $23,790 −$23,663 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $7,064 +$4,376 +62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,042 +$191 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,966 +$1,874 +38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,261 −$4,261 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $568 +$121 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17,837 +$18,773 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,695 −$1,652 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5,023 +$177 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,969 −$2,969 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4,606 −$4,606 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4,993 +$1,942 +39%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $3,193 +$735 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $17,715 +$7,202 +41%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $4,427 −$4,427 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,871 +$129 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,689 +$123 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17,814 −$17,808 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,867 +$1,372 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,648 +$2,777 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14,777 +$24,409 +165%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $4,426 +$324 +7%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $500 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,686 +$5,111 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9,126 −$9,100 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $18,123 +$3,827 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,140 −$752 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,766 +$1,344 +28%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,736 +$2,264 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,078 −$960 -19%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $1,411 +$1,039 +74%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $520 +$75 +14%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,788 +$1,480 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12,895 +$30,305 +235%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $3,033 −$3,002 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $728 +$125 +17%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $4,970 +$2,030 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19,020 −$19,020 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $364 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $684 −$684 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21,127 +$5,622 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,075 +$129 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13,096 −$3,560 -27%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $628 +$107 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $1,436 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $2 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $10 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $5 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $590 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $12 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $25 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $756 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $6 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $1 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $29 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $2 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $0 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $1 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $0 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $5 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $2 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $3,059 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $632 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $15 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $11 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $78 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $8 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $2 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $3 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $4 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $38 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $8 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $0 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $2 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,245.16 · official $19,797.81 · 2665 history records