Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4572…83ff sports 538 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133,699 (-7%) realized −$133,319 · open −$380
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%251W / 284L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,445per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,532est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$3,223
14 days+$3,223
30 days+$3,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$142,384
other 8% +$8,595
world 0% −$2,233
crypto 0% −$1,007
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +11.0% +0.4% 62% 62% +2.7%
≤30d 21 +11.0% +0.4% 62% 62% +2.7%
≤90d 107 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 51% -15.0%
all 535 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 47% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 47% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 47% -24.3%
15% -34.3% 46% -31.6%
20% -40.7% 41% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,805) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,227 vs −$3,333 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$10,618
Realized−$133,319
Unrealized−$380
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses251 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,532
Open positions3
Markets (closed)535 / 538
History coverage215d
Avg bet$3,445
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Bebop 51¢ 50¢ $5,803 $5,746 −$57 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 51¢ 50¢ $4,919 $4,871 −$48 (-1%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 19¢ 0¢ $276 $1 −$275 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 282 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $3,515 +$1,470 +42%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,003 +$596 +59%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $687 +$317 +46%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $582 −$573 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $710 −$700 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $813 −$800 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$15 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,452 −$1,433 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $991 +$494 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $849 +$384 +45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,700 −$1,672 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,223 +$2,533 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,229 −$2,202 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $793 +$1,495 +188%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $583 +$749 +129%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $518 +$154 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,414 +$1,607 +114%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $433 −$424 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,427 +$1,792 +126%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $4,104 −$4,054 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $1,340 +$795 +59%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Apr 03 $1,660 −$1,642 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qu Apr 02 $3,000 −$2,936 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs M80 (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 02 $6,000 −$5,919 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $3,000 −$2,953 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Apr 02 $2,000 −$1,979 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Quali Apr 02 $1,000 −$980 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic - Map 2 Winner Apr 02 $3,528 −$3,472 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $2,472 −$2,425 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 02 $2,709 −$2,646 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof Apr 02 $2,948 +$1,733 +59%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $2,000 +$3,029 +152%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $4,539 +$3,548 +78%
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Apr 02 $100 +$56 +56%
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $738 +$561 +76%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Apr 02 $3,000 +$6,711 +224%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Apr 01 $5,042 +$3,599 +71%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Apr 01 $2,000 −$1,954 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Apr 01 $1,298 −$1,283 -99%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $2,400 −$2,369 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 01 $3,918 +$3,254 +83%
Counter-Strike: OG vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playo Apr 01 $6,077 −$6,003 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $2,323 −$2,287 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Apr 01 $1,600 −$1,587 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $500 +$643 +129%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Apr 01 $1,000 +$389 +39%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $1,000 +$827 +83%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $2,000 +$1,125 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $4,991 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $1,953 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $3,044 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $892 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 20¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 19¢ $180 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $3,574 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $896 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $90 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 56¢ $871 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 44¢ $868 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 59¢ $607 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $1,599 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 54¢ $544 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 67¢ $543 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ $1,003 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 99¢ $1,004 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 68¢ $384 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 66¢ $303 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 61¢ $506 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 46¢ $203 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 43¢ $203 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 44¢ $74 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 40¢ $102 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 58¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 54¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 54¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 54¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 54¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 54¢ $101 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,618.06 · official $10,618.06 (match) · 1760 history records