Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4571…b8ca sports 147 markets active 1d ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-11%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%85W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$221
sports 43% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.7% +2.9% 86% 86% +3.5%
≤30d 54 -5.8% -14.8% 63% 61% -13.8%
≤90d 144 -6.1% -15.1% 59% 58% -19.9%
all 144 -6.1% -15.1% 59% 58% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 58% -19.9%
10% -23.2% 39% -27.5%
15% -30.6% 27% -34.5%
20% -37.4% 24% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses85 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage41d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-05-31? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5) Jun 07 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $4 +$2 +35%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 02 $1 +$1 +83%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +76%
OC Safi vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 01 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 +$1 +146%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $2 +$2 +65%
Will National Bank of Egypt Club win on 2026-05-29? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 25 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) May 24 $2 $0 +13%
Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 May 23 $6 $0 +3%
Will FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) May 22 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) May 22 $1 +$1 +86%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 May 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Brøndby IF (-1.5) May 21 $2 $0 +13%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-2.5) May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5) May 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5) May 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: New York Liberty (-6.5) May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-1.5) May 21 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-2.5) May 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club: O/U 3.5 May 20 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 $0 +31%
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $2 $0 +27%
Will Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC end in a draw? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) May 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $1 29h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $1 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) BUY PortlandFire 55¢ $1 2d
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 83¢ $1 3d
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 3d
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 56¢ $1 3d
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 4d
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 4d
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $1 6d
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 7d
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 7d
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) BUY New York Liberty 56¢ $1 9d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5) BUY PortlandFire 56¢ $1 9d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 10d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 10d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 10d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 10d
Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5) BUY New York Liberty 54¢ $1 10d
Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5) BUY New York Liberty 54¢ $1 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 13d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $6 13d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 15d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 15d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 15d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 15d
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 16d
OC Safi vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.78 · official $4.78 (match) · 582 history records