Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x456f…2403 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$111 (+9%) realized +$49 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$56
sports 36% +$101
crypto 9% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +92.3% +74.0% 100% 100% +74.0%
≤90d 1 +92.3% +74.0% 100% 100% +74.0%
all 6 +14.8% +3.9% 50% 50% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 50% +6.4%
10% -6.1% 33% -3.8%
15% -15.1% 33% -13.1%
20% -23.5% 33% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$3 · ×12.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.34 per $1 lost it wins $12.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage253d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 87¢ 95¢ $654 $717 +$62 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lightning vs. Stars May 28 $103 +$95 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $106 +$16 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) Dec 19 $6 +$6 +96%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 16 $47 −$7 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 87¢ $657 1h
Lightning vs. Stars BUY Lightning 52¢ $103 159d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 87¢ $106 182d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 19? BUY No 1¢ $2 189d
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) BUY Dolphins 51¢ $6 222d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $345 222d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $345 222d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 253d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.66 · official $727.18 · 12 history records