Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x456a…6e92
crypto · 399 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses310 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 399
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day173.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 399 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 55% -10.4%
≤30d 399 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 55% -10.4%
≤90d 399 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 55% -10.4%
all 399 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 55% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover173.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 55% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 21% -19.0%
15% -27.7% 7% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1086 history records