Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x456a…7fcd politics 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 71L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$10
other 25% −$4
economics 12% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -0.4% -9.9% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage666d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $49 $0 +0%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon's daughter move out of the U.S.? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Alexandre de Moraes jail in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chris Jones win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Avail airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
No Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mark Andrews be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Fortnight' win Record of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Jake Paul fight Conor McGregor next? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Zircuit airdrop in 2024? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Elise Stefanik for Education Secretary? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Nov 18 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 26d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 26d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 37d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $3 38d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 38d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 50d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 50d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 69d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $52 73d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $52 74d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 94d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 95d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 107d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 107d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 113d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 113d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $52 115d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $52 115d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 118d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 119d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records